“It’s not paranoia if they are out to get you”
I have no idea which American first made this quote, but I have them to thank for one of my favourite sayings.
The message is clear, you really are not crazy if the world is actually coming to an end. And if you are a Nigerian, it’s hard to argue that it’s not coming to an end.
Fuel prices have skyrocketed faster than spaceships, electricity tariffs at this points feel like suggestions to better prepare yourself for the inevitable slaughtering by the various electricity distribution companies, and today’s goods prices, feel like pleasant memories to help you deal with the trauma tomorrow’s prices will bring.
It’s hard to argue that the world is not coming to an end, when you can see that the ruling elite seem to be unable to articulate coherently what is actually wrong with Nigeria, and how they figure they can get us out of this freefall we are in.
Sometimes, the lack of clarity on what is happening to this country and why it is occurring, feels like a feature and not a glitch. As an example, today a lot of us cannot conclusively say if fuel subsidy has ended or it is being paid. And neither can we conclusively say what is happening with Dangote’s refinery.
Everyday there’s a new knot, tied into what should normally be a straight rope, between Dangote Refinery Ltd and NNPC (sorry NNPCL), over why fuel is barely available and super expensive despite a working $18bn refinery funded by private capital, that is able to supply the entire nation and neighbouring countries with refined petroleum products- comfortably do so I may add.
Seventeen years (as at 2024) after the Obasanjo era ended, nearly ten years after the PDP lost power in Abuja, we are still being promised the ever elusive 24hrs electricity supply.
Simultaneously with that fanciful promise of constant electricity, we are having to live through frequent nationwide power outages, as the grid seems to collapse every other day. As at when I wrote this About page - October 24th 2024) - areas across the three northern geopolitical zones, have been suffering an electricity blackout for three days, that according to the Transmission Company of Nigeria, was caused by several 330KV transmission lines going offline (or “tripping off” in their words).
Seven days before I wrote this About page, a legislative aide - Ms Nimah Sulaiman - was murdered after she was abducted at gunpoint at Banex Junction, Wuse II, right in the middle of Abuja City itself, on her way home.
And without missing a beat, our ruling elite constantly assure us that Nigeria is safe, and we are safe, even as we hear, read and experience stories of people getting kidnapped even in the centre of governance - within the Federal Capital Territory!
Things like these make it difficult to convince the thinking Nigerian, that “they” whoever they could be, are not out to get us in this country.
We have questions like for example why - all of a sudden- is Nigeria broke? Like if there was no Lekki Massacre as our government continues to insists, then why does it continue to prevent peaceful rallies at the Lekki Tollgate by the survivors that shouldn’t exist?
We know that we are not being told the truth by the people in charge of this country, about the real state of things, and most of us lack the means to find the truth ourselves. And even when we read/watch/hear the news, we are very sceptical because we know that there’s a lot more information and context that is relevant to the true story, but has been left out of it.
This newsletter is dedicated to providing that relevant information, that contextual analysis, every Nigerian needs to better process what is happening around him (or her as the case may be) in this country of ours.
This is a publication where I aim to share MY analysis and commentary on Nigerian politics, national security, geopolitics as it affects Nigeria, and the state of our national affairs in general.
Why Me? Who am I?
A number of those subscribed have followed me either from the days I blogged on WordPress, or when I wrote for various think tanks, or just knew me from mainstream media interviews and Twitter. Most of you probably do not know me and may be wondering what qualifies me to opine authoritatively on these topics?
I come from a background of more than a decade in the national security space, where I worked mostly in analytical positions, with a bit of collection and information operations work. Some of my work in the last decade has been in supporting mediation and dialogue processes with non state armed groups within and outside Nigeria. I have also worked as an adviser to international and private backchannel diplomatic processes in Nigeria, and also the Sahel region, until fairly recently.
During my career, I have had the pleasure to have worked with people across a very diverse spectrum, from cattle herders to major presidential candidates and their policy advisers. This is in addition to having worked in locations equally as diverse, from Mallam Fatori (Borno, Nigeria) to Tillaberi (Tillaberi, Niger) or Bonny Island (Rivers, Nigeria), to Sabha (Sabha, Fezzan, Libya).
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